In 2024, we saw five sets of changes to the Immigrations Rules and this included some significant amendments including:
- Changes to the Rules to prevent Care Workers and Senior Care Workers from sponsoring dependents on their visas;
- Increases to the minimum salary requirement for Skilled Worker visas;
- Increases to the earnings threshold for spouse visas; and
- Increases to the cost of the Immigration Health Surcharge
Despite those changes, net migration remained high although it has fallen slightly based on the revised figures issued at the end of 2024. As we enter a new year, and with a Labour Government which has committed to cutting net migration, the question is what changes can we expect in the coming twelve months?
Increases in compliance visits/checks for businesses with sponsor licences?
Any business which applies for a licence to support Skilled Worker or Global Mobility visa applications must agree to help tackle illegal migration and breaches of the Immigration Rules. These "compliance duties" also allow the Home Office to carry out inspections without notice to make sure this obligation is being fulfilled. Inspections or audits can be triggered by certain events or can be the result of certain sectors being targeted by the Home Office, for example in recent years care homes have experienced an increase in the number of audits due to concerns about abuse of the Immigration Rules.
As the Government has committed to tackling rogue employers, we predict there will be an increase in the number of Home Office audits and inspections over the coming twelve months. This started in the latter half of 2024, and will continue, but will not always involve physical inspections as businesses can expect:
- The Home Office to check data on salary with HMRC.
- Requests for documents when applying for Certificates of Sponsorship.
- Email requests to allow virtual audits to take place.
As a result, any business with a licence should continue to carry out their own checks to make sure they are compliant and can also instruct us to provide compliance audits and training to staff.
Visa restrictions to further reduce net migration.
The Government have not set a goal in terms of reducing net migration, but they are very clear that they want the number to come down significantly and this is likely to lead to further restrictions on visas. It is difficult to predict where those restrictions will take place as we have already seen changes to the rules for dependents of students and care workers, and increased visa costs.
Options which may be considered include whether to reduce the number of roles which qualify for Skilled Worker visas, as this was extended in 2020, or to reintroduce the Resident Labour Market Test. However, the proposals so far have related to linking Government policy on skills and training to sectors where there has been a historical reliance on migrant workers - and this is likely to take some time to see the desired reduction in numbers.
Increasing costs
Visa costs always go up, and there are likely to be further increases across 2025 including a possible increase to the Immigration Health Surcharge. However, this will need to be balanced with the recent Migration Advisory Committee Report which found a typical Skilled Worker visa holder contributes more to the UK economy than a typical UK worker.
One thing employers will need to watch out for is the Employment Rights Bill as comments at the end of 2024 suggested rules may be introduced to restrict employers passing on visa costs to employees, which could significantly increase the financial burden on employers who bring in workers from abroad. There have already been changes to the Sponsor Guidance preventing employers from passing on costs associated with a licence application, but further changes could follow later this year.
New visas?
It may seem strange to suggest new visa categories when the Government is aiming to reduce net migration, but it is possible that there will be changes to align with Government policies in other areas. For example, a streamlined visa process to allow short term workers to come to the UK to work on renewable energy projects would be welcomed as the Skilled Worker process can be difficult for these roles.
Transition to digital visas
The transition to digital visas, rather than physical documents, was due to be completed by 31 December 2024, but due to technical issues it was pushed back until at least 31 March 2025. In the coming months we will see if this date is pushed back again or if by 1 April all migrants to the UK will be expected to have a digital visa.
This is likely to be an issue for employers dealing with Right to Work issues, as some employees may experience difficulties proving their right to work if they have not successfully linked an e-visa to their account. There are also concerns that the delay will create difficulties for people entering the UK, so if the deadline is moved to later in the year, it may be necessary to bring back biometric cards in the interim.
Summary
There will be changes to the visa rules in 2025, but what those may be is difficult to predict. However, as the Government is committed to reducing net migration, we can expect any changes to trend towards stricter visa requirements, and potentially making visas more expensive.
