Fri 05 Nov 2021

What will drive change - Government regulation or public opinion?

Great news earlier this week that the first major deal of COP26 has been signed. More than 100 nations have promised to end deforestation by 2030.

However, as was widely publicised earlier this week, a similar deal in 2014 has had little if any impact on slowing deforestation in the intervening 7 years, which raises the question as to what impact these kind of deals are going to have without subsequent action.

Behaviours are going to be more important than the deals that are struck. Behaviours of the governments for sure, and of industry, will be key. But what role does the behaviours of the people - all of us as individuals - have to play? Can the public really drive this kind of change?

At the most basic level, the overriding priority of any democratic government is to remain in power. So they will tend to behave in a way that is most likely to result in receiving the most votes at the next election. That all sounds really rather obvious, but let's apply this observation to the deforestation deal. If everyone said they would vote their government out if they hadn’t taken any meaningful action on deforestation by the next election you can be sure that there would be significant progress.

But that looks only at the choices of the people. The choice as to where to cast their vote. What if the general public stopped eating meat, and key figures in industry across the world stopped using timber? The deforestation target would be met in a year.

Now I appreciate that's an extreme example which simply isn’t going to happen. But it does make the point that ultimate consumers, as individuals, can have a major impact if behaving collectively. Probably a bigger impact than any government deals or regulations could have.

This, in turn, leads us to the inevitable conclusion that if tackling climate change matters enough to us all as individuals, then we can all make choices to positively influence the actions of governments and of industry.

At a domestic level there has been an increasing trend in the UK, particularly through the pandemic, around recycling, repurposing, mending rather than replacing, home growing, composting and so on.

More importantly, perhaps, there has also been a growing trend around looking more closely at the sustainability of the products and services we buy. For example, most energy providers in the UK now offer deals where they supply only renewable energy to the home, and the cost of these packages has now reached parity with less green deals which means the public can make a straight choice between green or not without being influenced by cost.

With electric cars we are not there yet. So even if you want to swap diesel for electric, the cost differential might prevent you doing so, or at the very least it might delay your decision to switch to electric.

At an industry level, Environmental, Social Governance is a major factor in businesses making commercial decisions.

Take the construction and real estate sector in the UK for example. ESG used to be a box ticking exercise, but it has very quickly become front and centre of the entire sector.

Over 40% of the UK's carbon footprint comes from the Built Environment. That simply has to change. All new buildings must be net zero by 2050, but those property players who get there sooner are going to be at a considerable competitive advantage.

For investors and developers, their properties and portfolios will be more attractive (and more valuable) with good ESG credentials, and a higher BREEAM rating means higher rents / higher investment values. As a recent example, last month one of the world's largest pension funds, ABP, announced it would no longer be investing in oil, gas or coal producers and would be selling its holdings in fossil fuel producers (approximately 15bn Euros worth) by 2023. The rationale, according to ABP, was down to the importance placed on ESG by pension participants and employers. Personal choice of individuals. Not governments telling them what to do.

For occupiers, better ESG credentials help to attract and retain the best talent in an increasingly competitive employment market where employees are placing ever increasing importance on ESG issues when choosing their jobs. Again, personal choices.

To put all of this into context, weight of public opinion will not of itself drive the change. But if the general public care sufficiently about climate change, and ESG generally, and make choices based around sustainability in all aspects of their lives, from how much meat they eat to how they travel to who they work for and where they buy their power from, and even where they invest their pensions, then the governments will quickly follow suit because that will put them in step with the individuals who will be deciding the politicians fate at the next election.

We can all hope for more positive news stories to come out of COP26 as this week and next progress, but it's difficult to escape the obvious conclusion that in democratic societies, the real change will ultimately come about because each and every one of us demands it, and not because a deal has been signed or a new set of regulations has been introduced.

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